The
Problem
Climate change refers to the variation in the earth’s
global climate or in regional climate over time. These changes may be caused
by naturally occurring internal and external earth forces, or more worryingly
in recent times, human activities. Climate change is a global threat-to the
earth's environment, the well being of its people and the strength of its
economies. While the climate has always varied naturally, the vast majority
of scientists now believe that the planet's climate is changing due to the
rising concentrations of human-made greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). These GHGs accumulate
in the atmosphere to trap heat near the surface and could override the Earth's
natural climatic variability and could lead to irreversible climatic change.
Since the Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century, atmospheric concentrations
of GHGs have risen significantly as a result of industrial and land use practices.
These were in turn fed by population growth, world wars, rising affluence,
and an increasing dependence on fossil fuels, which has come to seem almost
inseparable from economic growth (Gupta, 2000).
The coastal zone is a relatively small (<20%) but dynamic area of the Earth’s
surface. It is the location for more than 50% of the human population, providing
wide societal benefits, containing a suite of natural ecosystems, and functions
as a significant and complex region for biogeochemical transformation (Crossland,
2002).
One of the most certain consequences of global warming is a rise in mean sea
level, and as a consequence the coastal zone is regarded as one of the most
vulnerable areas to climate change.
The
Science
The state of the art knowledge on climate change is presented
in the five-yearly reports of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was established in 1988 by two United
Nations organizations, the World
Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Through the production of comprehensive assessment reports, the IPCC has been
instrumental in developing an international response to climate change, including
the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol
by providing a firm foundation on which to build climate policy.
The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data
or other relevant parameters. Rather it bases its assessment mainly on peer
reviewed and published scientific/technical literature (About
the IPCC)
The stated aims of the IPCC are to assess scientific information relevant
to:
1. Human induced climate change
2. Impacts of human induced climate change
3. Options for adaptation and mitigation
The history of the IPCC is described in a brochure
The most recent IPCC AR4 (IPCC, 2007) has confirmed
that climate change will continue throughout the 21st century and beyond.
In addition, there is increasing body of evidence to suggest that global warming
is already having an effect on ecosystems such as coastal forests, wetlands
and reefs. Tropical sea-surface temperatures will exceed the tolerance of
corals, leading to more widespread bleaching while wetlands and low-lying
coastal areas may be expected to experience increased levels of inundation,
accelerated coastal erosion, and saline intrusion into coastal waterways and
water tables. Evidence points to a severe impact potential, but presently
knowledge of the vulnerability of coastal areas to sea-level rise and wider
climate change remains incomplete. There is uncertainty about the rates of
change and it is difficult to separate extreme events exacerbated by climate
change from those that represent part of the current natural variability of
climate.
The Policy Response
The international response to the enormous challenge of climate
change has a long and varied history. This response has been multifaceted
and encompasses a scientific and political component, the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto protocol processes respectively. The
Figure
attached illustrates an overview of the International institutional framework
for climate change.
UNFCCC
The UNFCCC provides the
basis for global action "to protect the climate system for present and
future generations". Decisions under the UNFCCC are made on the basis
of consensus according to current operating practice. This means that, rather
than voting, Parties aim to reach agreement through discussion and negotiation.
The main negotiating forum is sessions of the Conference
of the Parties (COP), which typically take place at ministerial level.
Parties also negotiate in the two subsidiary bodies of the UNFCCC, the Subsidiary
Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary
Body for Implementation (SBI). Other matters, such as the development
of technical guidelines for implementing COP decisions, are dealt with at
UNFCCC workshops.
There are now 186 Parties to the UNFCCC who have agreed to a number of commitments
under the convention, including:
- Submitting a national
inventory of emissions and removals of greenhouse gases.
- Implementing national
programs to mitigate climate change and adapt to its impacts
- Strengthening scientific
and technical research and systematic observation related to the climate
system, and promoting the development and diffusion of relevant technologies.
- Promoting education
programs and public awareness about climate change and its likely effects.
- Periodically submitting
comprehensive National Communications (ie reports) on activities to implement
commitments under the Convention.
Concurrent work has focused on issues such as National Communications from
Annex I and non-Annex I Parties, and developing technical guidelines for implementing
commitments under the Convention. In addition, work has included the development
of further technical guidelines and procedures for implementing the Kyoto
Protocol (discussed below) and negotiations over international commitments
beyond 2012.
The
Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol to the Convention on Climate
Change was developed through the UNFCCC negotiating process, and is intended
to strengthen the Convention. It sets emissions targets for a certain group
of UNFCCC Parties - those in Annex
I to the Convention. These are developed countries, and their targets
are inscribed in Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol.
After its entry into force on 16 February 2005, the Protocol became legally
binding for countries that have ratified it (referred to as ‘Parties
to the Kyoto Protocol’). Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol lists emissions
target commitments for developed countries. Commitments are expressed as a
percentage of base year emissions (in most cases the base year is 1990), and
comprise a target for average annual emissions during the commitment period
from 2008-2012 that Kyoto Protocol Parties are required to demonstrate compliance
with.
Countries not included in Annex B (i.e. developing countries) do not have
emissions targets, but may participate in emissions abatement activities through
the clean development mechanism. In addition to policies and measures to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, Parties can use the Kyoto mechanisms and greenhouse
sinks to meet their commitments. The Kyoto
mechanisms include international emissions trading, the clean development
mechanism and joint implementation.